Change can be both an opportunity and a threat. And 2025 promises a little of each for outdoor stores.

Based on conversations with retailers, brand executives and thought leaders in preparation for our new Switchback event, here are the four major issues that will drive the outdoor business in 2025 and the foreseeable future.

1. Core vs. Casual

Outdoor stores have traditionally done a great job serving the core outdoor consumer but changing behaviors and participation trends are pointing to growth opportunities with a more casual outdoor enthusiast. According to recently released data from the Outdoor Industry Association (OIA), here is what the new casual outdoor consumer looks like:

• The casual consumer now represents 40% of the overall market.
• Most of them started experiencing the outdoors in 2020 or later.
• This segment of the market is 55% female; 30% are POC.
• The two largest age segments are under 24-years-old and over 55.
• The casual consumer is a dilettante. They participate in one to five activities anywhere from 4 – 24 times a year.
• Older participants gravitate to wildlife viewing, birding and or fishing.
• They are not interested in high tech gear, perfecting skill sets or setting speed records.

This consumer and their dollars are up for grabs, and because they are “new” to the category their shopping habits and store preferences are not ingrained.

2. Glamping is a Real Thing

Hardcore enthusiasts may roll their eyes at this idea, but smart money is investing in this category, which is expected to hit $1.3 billion in annual revenues by 2029, according to Arizton Research.

Last year, Utah-based Yonder Escalante, updated its name to Ofland (meaning “of the land”) to honor its goal of helping guests connect with the outdoors. Guests staying at Ofland can choose from a variety of experiences: from full camping to glamping in cabins resembling traditional hotel rooms to campsites, where you can set up a tent and cook for yourself. And the more bougie outdoor person can stay in a deluxe cabin with a private bath.

Amenities include a pool and hot tub, ideal for relaxing and recovering from challenging hikes, while an outdoor lodge has fire pits, ample seating, and complimentary coffee and baked goods daily. There are also laundry facilities on the property so guests can pack light, and pets are welcome, too.

The most outlandish activity at Ofland is a drive-in theater filled with vintage cars — each features a functional radio and a heater for colder nights. Guests can select a car of their choice and watch classic movies every night of the week. A vintage Airstream offers free popcorn and other classic movie snacks for purchase.

Ofland plans to open additional Glamping sites throughout the country.

Marriott International has also made a major investment in Glamping. Late last year, Marriott acquired Postcard Cabins, which has 29 locations across the United States featuring more than 1,200 cabins. Each Glampsite is located within a 3-hour drive of a major city, providing easy access for outdoor enthusiasts. When Marriott plugs Postcard into its reservation system and begins promoting the option to its millions of domestic and international members, the hospitality chain can drive major growth in this activity.

3. Brick and Mortar Build Up

Big brands and retailers are doubling down on physical locations. Here is a quick summary of the planned store openings we know about for 2025:

• Boot Barn will open 60 new stores.
• Birkenstock will increase its store count by 20 from its current number of 67. 
• Salomon, which opened a NYC pop up this past year, will open five branded stores in 2025.
• Academy Sports + Outdoors will increase its fleet by 25 stores, bringing its total to 323. 
• And Dick’s Sporting Goods plans to open 15 new House of Sport locations in 2025, bringing the total number of House of Sport locations to 35 by the end of the year. Dick’s House of Sport stores are about 100,000 square feet and combine retail with experiences like climbing walls, golf bays, and multi-sport cages.

For specialty stores, this will mean increased competition from well-financed general sports players and increased brand awareness from branded players such as Vuori and Birkenstock.

4. Terrifying Tariffs

President Trump has promised to increase tariffs on goods coming into the United States, especially from China, Mexico and Canada. Speculation is that he is rattling his saber as a negotiating tool on issues such as immigration and IP protection.

Most major trade associations have already spoken out against this proposed plan, especially on categories such as footwear and apparel which are already subject to tariffs five times as high as other categories.

If enacted, tariffs on outdoor gear, apparel and footwear could increase prices for retailers and consumers, which could slow the US economy at a time when the rate of inflation is slowing down. 

Of course, one of the long-term goals of tariffs is to encourage more domestic manufacturing. And a recent article in Gear Junkie pointed out that “American brands already producing here will have a strategic advantage if their competitors have to raise prices for gear made across the Pacific Ocean.”

In the short term, brands and retailers have begun to heavy up on inventory and raw material purchases in hopes to beat the clock on new tariffs in 2025.

Many of these topics will be covered in the conference and other conversations at Switchback Spring, June 16-18, 2025 in Nashville, TN. To learn more, visit: https://www.switchbackevent.com/